Solvang towards the future: Our 2030 – 2050 scenarios
By 2030, Solvang will be fully compliant with AER for all vessels, while the GFI target level will depend on the availability of CCS and biofuel. In 2050, net-zero GHG has moved from vision to reality in Solvang’s cargo operations – which will play a vital role for our clients worldwide.
Target AER rating in 2030
ETHYLENE (E+H-CLASS): During the year 2024, Solvang’s average AER improved from 13.73 to 13.17. This corresponds to an A/B. At sea the AER was 11.7 or an A rating, even for the two vessels that scored below CII compliance due to port operations. Five of eight vessels scored A or B, and one scored C. If corrected for port operations/idling, all vessels scored A or B. Anticipating continuous 2 % reduction in target AER, and simulating E-class and modified H-class up to 2030, the fleet average rate will be B up to 2026 and C up to 2030. Hence, our ethylene fleet will score far better than the required AER in 2025 and also be in compliance in 2030.
LGC fleet
AER improved from 8.1 to 7.5 from 2023 to 2024, or 7.1 if corrected for port operations and idling. Out of nine LGCs, three had a C rating, and six had B rating. The C-rating was due to planned dockings and trading patterns.
Compared to the IMO 2019- 2026 reduction target, the 7.5 value corresponds to a B-rating in 2025 and minimum compliance in 2030. Three vessels are scheduled for drydocking in 2025, which will improve the AER rating. Assuming continued 2 % reduction in target AER from 2026-2030 (see figure under rules and regulations), the LGC fleet average will require 7.38 in 2030.
Based on the modifications done on the LGC fleet, our LGC vessels will operate in the same pattern with continued improvement of operations, best practice and maintenance. As a result, our LGC fleet will be in IMO compliance also in 2030.
VLGC fleet
The AER improves from 7.0 to 6.8 from 2023 to 2024, or 6.6 if corrected for port operations and idling. The results give a good C-rating for two vessels, and B rating for three vessels.
Compared to the IMO 2019-2026 reduction target, the 6.8 value corresponds to a B/C. One VLGC was dry-docked in 2024, giving full effect in 2025.
Assuming continued 2 % reduction in target AER from 2026-2030, the VLGC fleet average required in 2030 should be < 6.56. Due to CII requirements, not the EEXI certification, speed for some of the vessels in 2030 will be limited to 15.5 knots.
In 2024 average speed was about 16 knots.
Summary 2030
With the assumption given above and upgrades, the current Solvang fleet will be fully AER/CII compliant in 2030.
Depending on how IMO’s new GHG regulations will play out, if finally adopted, both targets and limit values for all vessels would likely have to be re-calculated. Changes and amendments can be expected.
Solvang outlook 2050
25 years from 2025, Solvang’s cargo operations will likely play a vital role for our clients worldwide. At the same time, net-zero GHG has moved from vision to reality by radical green measures in the Clipper Future programme.
Clipper Future aims to design vessels to comply with future regulations while sticking to a reasonable writeoff schedule.
The scope is cost-effective and smart technical solutions to deliver in a well-to-wake perspective. All our newbuildings from 2013 on comply with our vision.
Change of fuel
To comply with IMO GHG zero-emission regulations, we will not get around the need for a zero-carbon fuel. In a well-to-wake perspective, such a fuel is not available in 2025. Only tank-to-wake, where energy and cost intensive processing leads to substantial losses. The price factor is 4 to 10, compared to standard fossil fuels (IMO 4th GHG study 2020).
Pertaining to standard fuels, a well-to-wake approach is crucial to avoid GHG emissions shifting from shipping to other energy generation industries, such as oil or coal power plants.
The electro-fuel scenario
Artificial fuel processed from air, water, and renewable electricity. According to a recent study renewable electricity from clean sources will be limited for the next decades.
In principle, the world’s deep sea shipping could use all the world’s renewable electricity to produce e-fuel with green ammonia.
Without active contribution from other industries, it is hard to see how e-fuel could be available in amounts even close to sufficient.
The biofuel scenario
The availability of sustainable biofuel will be defining for the future fuel scenario in shipping. Biofuel is the only alternative able to compete effectively with a fully exhaust-cleaned fossil counterpart, combined with CCS.
Future fuel scenarios
Carbon capture and storage
By 2050, Solvang holds necessary experience from onboard carbon capture and storage to effectively demonstrate a world-wide use of the technology. In combination with biofuel and/or electrofuel with CO2 permanently kept out of greenhouse gas systems, GHG output figures could turn negative. Another option is the aforementioned electro-fuel or e-fuel.
The carbon offset scenario
While all GHG emissions cannot be avoided, high quality emission reduction projects can be used for compensation in a carbon offset scenario. A market for carbon quotas is currently open, trading CO2 cuts to a lower price than using alternative fuels.
Regulations prospect
The conditions for future ship design and fuels will be decided by rules and regulations not yet proposed or adopted. The industry expects tighter regulations on emissions to air other than CO2, particularly SOx, NOx, CO, THC, and particles.
The future development will depend on a trade-off between fuel, engine and cleaning technology. There will be no fully clean fuel in a well-to-wake perspective, because all propellants require a form of processing. Also ”clean fuel” will need cleaning.
Clipper Future design
All newbuildings need the ability to operate on GHGneutral fuel. At the moment, there is no alternative to our two-stroke directly driven main engines for propulsion.
We project a 100 % reduction by 2050 in a mixed scenario of carbon capture and e-fuel/biofuel, compared to 2008 annual GHG emissions. Solvang’s vessels will run OCCS, deliver fuel efficiency above 50 %, and have the option to modify for all fuels.
The following examples illustrate that all foreseeable solutions today would be GHG-neutral when using biofuel or e-fuel, without modifications.
Fuel specs
The specific choice of fuel for Clipper Future would be made upon evaluations of commercial operation, environment, technology, and operational expenses and revenues.
More alternatives are expected to arrive, some radical, like wind assistance or air lubrication of the hull. They should all be considered in due time.
Currently, Solvang focuses on fuel optimization plus OCCS for optimal flexibility. In a 2050 positive scenario, given sufficient supply of GHG-free renewable electricity, we will deliver CO2 to the bunker barge, and in return receive e-fuel processed by our captured CO2. In line with technical specifications for vessels, we stick to the Solvang ECO vessel design, including the optimization of hull lines, cargo intake, cruising range, propeller/rudder design, heat recovery, optimal engine load and other measures.
